Unpacking future scenarios for Libya’s political process

This article examines three possible scenarios that Libya could be facing in the coming weeks, depending on whether it manages to achieve a breakthrough in its political process or whether it goes towards less promising paths.

Anticipation for a tripartite meeting between the heads of the Presidential Council (PC), High Council of State (HCS), and House of Representatives (HoR) is high. This meeting, set to take place in Morocco, could move Libya’s political process forward or see a derailing of talks that would plunge Libya into further uncertainty and insecurity.

This article examines the potential pathways for Libya's political future amidst ongoing instability, focusing on three distinct scenarios. Scenario 1 explores the fragile intra-Libyan political process led by the House of Representatives (HoR) and High Council of State (HCS), Scenario 2 considers the merits and challenges of holding a tripartite meeting in Morocco, and Scenario 3 discusses the challenges in achieving domestic buy-in and international consensus for a new UN-backed international process similar to the Libyan Political Dialogue Forum (LPDF).

Unlock deeper insights and understand the big picture

This article was originally featured in our flagship Political Risk report, a weekly publication with insider news, local insights and deep dive analyses on Libya's political and security landscapes that is delivered to clients ahead of time.

Our business intelligence unit spends 35+ hours each week conducting interviews, site visits and researching the trends shaping the future of North Africa, the Middle East and the Sahel.

Subscribe to one of our paid plans to get instant access to deeper insights, or contact us to learn more about our services and how to get even more value from our research.

Scenario 1: The HoR-HCS track follows the dependency path

Read the full story

Sign up now to read the full story. This article is available to subscribers on the Essential (Website-Exclusive), Political Risk and Enterprise tiers only.

Already have an account? Sign in

Great! You’ve successfully signed up.

Welcome back! You've successfully signed in.

You've successfully subscribed to Libya Desk.

Success! Check your email for magic link to sign-in.

Success! Your billing info has been updated.

Your billing was not updated.