Renewed conflict or political settlement? Prospects for Libya in 2025

Following three years of political stalemate and covert negotiations between Libya’s opposing factions in Tripoli and Benghazi, the nation appears poised for change. The nature of this change, however, rests in the hands of Libya’s ruling elites and militia leaders, who are currently reevaluating their strategies as their territories continue to be inundated with foreign capital and military resources.

Meanwhile, the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) has sought to intensify its efforts to establish a new unified government, even as the collapse of the al-Assad regime in Syria has sent ripples of uncertainty across the region —particularly in Libya, where Turkey and Russia have historically backed opposing sides of the conflict, and where a large number of Syrian fighters are still present.

Additionally, political change in both Europe and the United States is contributing to a reassessment of security priorities, which will likely have an impact on both UN efforts for peace and local conflict dynamics. Given all this, in order to understand what Libya faces in 2025, it is important to break down the dynamics within each rival faction, their respective objectives, as well as how global events are changing the situation on the ground.